Midterm races to watch on Election Day that could help determine Senate control 

Control of the Senate and the trajectory of the final two years of President Donald Trump’s administration are on the line this Election Day.

Democrats enter Election Day with a slight edge, according to the Cook Political Report’s closing Senate analysis, even though they need a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber. Of the seven “toss-up” races – Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas – six are currently seats held by Republicans. With GOP approval ratings low and frustration growing over the Iran war and the economy, Democrats see their opening.

Yet the Republican Party is dismissing the Cook analysis, telling Heartlander News the GOP is “confident” heading into the elections.

“Democrats have no leader, strategy or message other than being anti-Trump lunatics who want to raise our taxes and open our borders,” Republican National Committee spokeswoman Natalie Baldassarre said. “With the strength of our candidates coupled with lower drug prices, safer communities and less taxes, Republicans remain confident that our voters will turn out tomorrow to protect our majorities.”

Trump, for his part, has held more than two dozen rallies – many in deep-red states with unexpectedly tight races – in an effort to rally the base.

Here are four critical races Heartlander News will be watching Tuesday as Senate control hangs in the balance.

Michigan

A heated Senate race is underway in Michigan, where the Trump-endorsed Mike Rogers is facing progressive Abdul El-Sayed. The latest New York Times/Siena University poll of likely voters shows El-Sayed up 11 points, the widest margin of any major poll. Others also have El-Sayed ahead, but by smaller amounts.

The cost of living, healthcare and Israel have become major points of contention in the race. In televised debates, Rogers accused El-Sayed of having a “socialist agenda” and questioned his patriotism, linking him to “terrorist groups overseas.”

“My opponent can’t even condemn the IRGC, which is the terrorist enforcement arm of Iran, and doesn’t believe Iran is any more dangerous than Israel,” Rogers said. El-Sayed, meanwhile, accused Rogers of being a rubber stamp for Trump’s agenda, including the war in Iran.

In a stunning reversal over the weekend, Rep. Haley Stevens, a moderate Democrat who narrowly lost the party’s primary to El-Sayed, endorsed Rogers – a public break that exposes deepening factional divides within the Democratic Party.

The 11th-hour endorsement capped months of intraparty tension, including a public spat about Israel. On Friday, Stevens publicly called on El-Sayed to condemn an ad from a friendly PAC that blamed U.S. aid to Israel for “killing Palestinians” and high grocery prices in Michigan.

The ad dramatized El-Sayed’s arguments that “Israel is the reason Michigan cannot afford schools, healthcare and child care,” Stevens said, calling on El-Sayed to apologize and get “Israel out of his explanation for everything Michigan cannot afford.”

In response, El-Sayed accused Stevens of “relitigating a primary that ended three months ago.”

Stevens, who had initially endorsed El-Sayed and had planned to join him at a campaign event Sunday, announced Sunday morning she had been shut out of El-Sayed’s campaign and was instead endorsing the Republican candidate.

“Abdul made it very clear that I was not welcome in his campaign, that he didn’t need me there, that he didn’t want me there,” Stevens said at a press conference. “And at some point you gotta look at who’s standing for our country.”

Texas

Another tight race is underway in Texas, where Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is backed by Trump, is facing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. The latest New York Times/Siena University polling indicates that Talarico is up by seven percentage points among likely voters.

Dubbed “Talafreako” by Trump, the Democrat’s campaign includes codifying Roe v. Wade to increase abortion access, higher taxes on billionaires and corporations and universal healthcare as priorities.

He has been criticized by Trump and Paxton for old remarks, including apologizing for “whiteness” and saying there are six genders. Talarico has since walked back those comments, calling them “cringey.”

Alaska

Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan faces a unique race in Alaska, where he is facing Democrat Mary Peltola and independent candidate Dan J. Sullivan.

The New York Times reported last week that despite denials from Peltola, her campaign actively tried to stack the ballot and peel votes away from the Republican incumbent, Sullivan, by recruiting another candidate with the same name to run.

“It’s terrible what’s happened in Alaska,” Trump told Heartlander News when asked about it. “They created a fake candidate. They took a candidate named Dan Sullivan to run against another candidate who’s a great senator named Dan Sullivan in order to cheat in the election.”

Trump also called on Peltola to remove herself from the race and called for her to be “prosecuted criminally.”

The latest New York Times polling indicates Peltola only has a one-point lead in the razor-thin race.

Over the weekend, Trump accused the independent candidate of disappearing following the news: “The Fake Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr., has DISAPPEARED! Nobody can find him, including Law Enforcement,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that “He knows that he committed a Criminal Act.”

Ohio

The site of three recent Trump rallies, Ohio Sen. Jon Husted is running against former Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Trump has said a vote for Brown, who has a decades-long career in politics, will bring back a “very dark period” for the country. “Sherrod Brown is the candidate of the Marxists, the communists, the anti-American radicals who want to tear down America’s heritage, and you threw him out because he did so badly on inflation, the border,” he said at an Ohio rally.

The latest New York Times polling has Brown up by six percentage points.

Trump carried Ohio by more than 11 points in 2024, and the state’s bellwether reputation means Tuesday’s result will be watched closely beyond its borders.