Public education officials in the Garden State are blaming lower birth rates for a precipitous decline in enrollment – “the lowest levels recorded in almost a quarter-century,” the New Jersey Monitor reported.

In the 2025-26 school year, statewide enrollment fell to about 1.4 million students, the fewest since the 2001-02 school year, according to the July 20 report, which notes the decline is expected to continue.

“Declining births are likely to prompt further drops in public school enrollment over the coming years. New Jersey cumulatively recorded 27,412 fewer births between 2021 and 2024 than it did in the same range 13 years earlier.”

The report framed the news within the broader context of projected nationwide enrollment losses, a trend previously covered by Heartlander News. The National Center for Education Statistics projected a decline of about 1.3 million students, or 2.7%, between 2025 and 2031. A 2024 report by a private institute predicted nearly half of U.S. students could be educated outside of public schools by 2030.

‘A giant clock with a lot of moving parts’ 

Betsy Ginsburg, executive director of the Garden State Coalition of Schools, called on state officials to re-evaluate the state’s funding formula to reflect current conditions.

“It’s like a giant clock with a lot of moving parts, but it adds up to enrollment declines,” she told reporters. “And since state aid is tied to enrollment, it’s going to have an effect.”

Not every district experienced a decline. About one third of the state’s 663 districts and charter schools enrolled more students this year than the year before. Alternative forms of schooling could also be a factor.

“Rises in home schooling or non-public school enrollment can also push down public school enrollment, but it’s unclear how much of a role either of those factors has played in New Jersey’s recent declines,” the Monitor reported.

New Jersey has historically been categorized as a “no notice, low regulation” state for homeschoolers, but as Heartlander News previously reported, that could change under recent legislation.

In September, homeschool families protested a measure requiring their curriculum to align with state learning standards, which can include themes such as diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI), gender identity and sexual orientation.

Another bill would require homeschoolers to undergo an annual child welfare check by public school officials but does not include funding to hire additional staff for the inspections.

“Public schools are there to educate children enrolled in the public school, not to do health and wellness checks on children in the community at large,” said Will Estrada, senior counsel at the Home School Legal Defense Association, voicing opposition to the bill.

Meanwhile, public schools are struggling to maintain existing infrastructure as enrollment declines.

“I have a small district that’s about 30% full, the building,” said Sen. Vin Gopal, D-Monmouth, chairman of the Senate Education Committee. “Their per-pupil cost is about $60,000 per kid. They’re looking at possibly cutting their music and art programs, and there’s nowhere in the town where redevelopment’s happening where families are moving in. What does that look like for the next 15 years?”