Analysis: Islamic regime keeps grip on country as Trump, Iran prepare to skirmish in New York

Iranian state media said it rallied 300,000 in Tehran even as U.S. voting begins for midterm elections, which it hopes will change the trajectory of the war.

The event came just a day before President Donald Trump canceled his weekend at Camp David while the State Department warned travelers about an escalation in the war.

It also comes a week before Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian are set to address the UN General Assembly.

Two days before the rally, Iran forecast participation at 313,000 people, a participation number reported verbatim, or nearly so, in Western and Arab media after the government-sponsored demonstration.

The number 313 has theological connotations, because in Islam the “Mahdi,” a cleric in hiding whose return is supposed to portend the end times, supposedly will be attended by 313 companions.

The Iranian state media outlet described the rally as a military exercise, not a civilian rally – notable departures from Western media descriptions of the event.

The government organized the exercise to show that despite serious damage done during the seven-month war waged by the U.S. over nuclear weapons, Iran won’t simply surrender.

But Iran International also reports the demonstration coincides with the anniversary of the anti-Islamic protests in September 2022.

The civilian antigovernment protests erupted spontaneously after Mahsa Amini died after being detained for not wearing the compulsory hijab, reported the Chicago Tribune.

The regime’s defiant tone is being bolstered by what the office of the United Nations Human Rights Commission (OHCHR) described as “gross human rights violations and crimes against humanity committed by their own Government.”

The Iranian regime has killed at least 30,000 civilian opponents in January, reported Time.

Since the war started, Western institutions have suddenly gone dark on reporting repression against Iranian civilians by the Islamic Republic, although it’s known to be widespread and key to keeping the regime in power.

“Executions have followed grossly unfair and summary proceedings,” wrote Human Rights Watch this month.

A Google search asking for estimates of how many civilians have been killed by the Iranian regime over the course of the war only turns up civilian casualties caused by the U.S.

The OHCHR report simply admits to 250 deaths caused by Iran since the start of the war, versus 178 Iranian civilian deaths caused by the U.S.

This asymmetry in reporting has helped the Iranian regime conduct an on-again-off-again offensive, hoping to prolong the war and cause war weariness among U.S. voters.

This week, Iran has sent another proposal for peace talks with the Trump administration in its effort to gain more time and dampen the war’s military and economic consequences.

“It is in Washington’s interest to accept these conditions,” Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei told Al Jazeera in an exclusive interview. “We are prepared for a decisive war.”

Trump may also be preparing for a decisive war.

Multiple media outlets have reported Trump said he’s in a “deciding mode” over the Iranian conflict.

The choices are whether he acts militarily or continues to choke Iran economically.

“My question is: If and when do I blow the entire nation up?” Trump told Fox News.

Trump, for his part, has been consistent in demanding a total ban on Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

The skirmish between the Islamic Republic and Trump will continue this week in New York at the United Nations.

Both leaders are expected to address the General Assembly separately, reported Fox News.

Former Acting Assistant Attorney General and White House domestic policy advisor Theo Wold told Fox that while Pezeshkian will have limited access to the international press in New York, it is “pretty sensible to allow them …to discuss whatever issues they think are pertinent to their regime and then tell them to go home.”

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz⁠ previewed the Trump address, according to Reuters.

“He will touch on the importance of ensuring Iran never has a nuclear weapon,” Waltz said.

In the meantime, the State Department has told citizens to either leave Iran now or forgo traveling to the country.

“Due to tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation,” said the website notification issued on Saturday.

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