Tennessee county notes shrinking school enrollment despite growing population base

Education officials in a Tennessee district are puzzling over a pattern repeating itself nationwide – declining public-school enrollment even when the local population has been growing. 

“No single factor explains where students have gone,” writes Knox News’ Caitlyn Meisner about Knox County Public Schools.

“But data and interviews with experts suggest a growing number of families are charting a different educational path through private schools, homeschooling and other alternatives that have expanded rapidly since the COVID-19 pandemic.”

‘The population of school-aged kids isn’t shrinking’

The district, which enrolls approximately 60,000 students across more than 90 schools, has noted shrinking attendance across “a majority of grades” since the 2020-21 academic year, according to the news outlet.

“Additionally, every student cohort shrank between the 2024-25 and 2025-26 school years,” Meisner wrote, adding the largest decline came at 307 students for the class of 2027.

“Even the younger grades weren’t immune to enrollment declines. The cohort entering third grade lost 26 students between those two school years, part of a districtwide decline of nearly 1,300 students.”

However, the enrollment decline comes at a time of rapid growth countywide.

“Knox County is growing fast,” Meisner observed. “Thousands of people move here every year to work for one of the many large local employers or to retire with a better quality of life.”

While birth rates vary nationwide, Tennessee’s has been steadily increasing since 2021, and Knox County is no exception – marking more than 5,100 babies born annually, the news outlet reported.

“The steady population growth that we’re seeing should mean we have steady increase in enrollments,” said Matthew Harris, an economics professor at the Boyd Center. “The population of school-aged kids isn’t shrinking.”

Harris attributes the enrollment decline to families’ decisions to withdraw from public education altogether.

“People are finding alternative enrollment pathways for their kids,” he concluded. “The public schools now have a decreased market share.”

‘So much support for homeschool families’

One alternative, private schools, saw enrollment increase statewide by nearly 24% between fall 2019 and 2021, the news outlet wrote.

“Nearly 4,000 Knox County students attended church-related schools in the 2020-21 school year, while nearly 6,550 attended other nonpublic schools, according to the Tennessee Department of Education. Nonpublic schools include private schools that are not affiliated with a specific church, though some may still have a religious focus.”

Another alternative, homeschooling, has also marked an increase in interest among area families.

“(We wanted) to know what (our kids) were learning … and to make learning fun and not just something you did for a test,” said Lisa Nocus, who now homeschools her seven children and serves on the board of the Christian-based Smoky Mountain Home Education Association.

Like Nocus, Emily Greer praised homeschooling for its ability to provide a Christian education without an expensive price tag.

“Knoxville has so much support for homeschool families,” she said. “You can certainly do it at home by yourself, and we tried that one year when I had my fourth baby.”