Public school enrollment is forecast to decline in all but nine states over the next five years, with states including California and Hawaii projected to lose more than 15% of their student populations.
The numbers are based on research, including a report from Bellwether. And although many of the steepest declines are in states such as New York, Oregon and New Mexico, which don’t offer school choice, one researcher warns that education freedom could take some of the blame.
“The projections have nothing to do with school choice,” writes Michael McShane, national research director for EdChoice, noting the “large declines in California, Oregon, and New York, states that aren’t going to see private school choice in the timeframe that these projections cover.
“Nevertheless, I expect choice to be blamed for the sorry condition of state and district finances as they wrestle with demographic decline.”
McShane writes that one Wisconsin city has begun itemizing property tax bills to show the “cost” of the state’s school choice program. Green Bay Mayor Eric Genrich told PBS Wisconsin the amount averages $270 per homeowner.
“I think a lot of people assume public dollars are going to public schools,” Genrich said. “When you show this to them, it tends to raise some questions.”
But McShane said the attempt to tie the cost of choice to public school funding shortfalls is a stretch. Although many districts are losing students, few are cutting staff and schools in proportion. He cites the Sacramento City Unified district, which lost 11% of its students but increased its number of employees, especially non-teaching positions.
Still, education freedom opponents will claim, “‘That has nothing to do with property taxes being too high,’” he says pejoratively. “‘It’s those darn vouchers!’”
Declining birth rates are the main contributing factor to falling public school enrollment, Bellwether says. Interstate migration is a smaller factor, as is declining international immigration.
School choice, which encompasses 1.5 million students nationwide, is only a small portion of the approximately 49 million U.S. public school students.
Genrich, a Democrat, acknowledged his city’s district will have to do significant cost-cutting because of deficits, possibly closing more schools. Still, he blamed school choice for exacerbating “this funding crunch.”
“We’ve already seen, I think, a 900% increase in the levy growth that is devoted to voucher school spending here in the district over the last ten years,” he said. “If we continue on that trajectory, it’s really just not sustainable.”
McShane’s response?
“Rather than take ownership for their own poor decision making, choice is going to be blamed. Rather than explaining that district numbers are declining due to entirely secular demographic trends, vouchers will be the menace lurking at the door.
“Don’t fall for it.”
Of note, six of the eight fastest-declining states lack school choice programs and seven of the nine growing states have them.
