Poll: Two years out, Harris remains frontrunner in 2028 presidential primary

(The Center Square) – Former Vice President Kamala Harris remains the top choice for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination among nearly 30% of Democratic and left-leaning independent voters surveyed, with her support holding virtually unchanged over the past year, according to The Center Square’s latest poll.

The Center Square has conducted four Voters’ Voice Polls since March gauging voter preferences in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic presidential primary featuring 13 prominent Democrats, with Harris receiving between 27% and 31% support each time. In the latest survey, which included a weighted sample of 1,011 registered Democrats and 160 Democratic-leaning independents, Harris received 29% support overall.

Though not her strongest showing overall, the October poll marked Harris’ best performance among Democratic-leaning independents. In March, when her overall support peaked, 32% of Democrats favored Harris compared with 18% of independents — a 14-point gap that narrowed to just four points in October, with 29% of Democrats and 25% of independents choosing her.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has remained respondents’ second choice since the start and has come in at 14% support in the past three polls. Former Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg placed third with 10% and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, placed fourth with 9%, similar to previous polls.

“As VP and the 2024 candidate for the Democrats, Harris [is] the most well-known. Newsom is probably second, given the national profile he has developed,” said Laurel Harbridge-Yong, professor of politics at Northwestern University, noting that name recognition can play an outsized role in early polling data.

While Harris led in nearly every demographic group surveyed, her strongest support appears to come from younger and Black voters. If the primary were held today, 47% of Black voters and 48% of voters ages 18-29 would choose Harris over the other names listed in the poll. Harris also received 42% support among voters with a high school diploma or less, the only other demographic group in which her support exceeded 40%.

As in previous polls, Newsom and Buttigieg both outpaced Harris among respondents 65 and older, receiving 17% and 15% support, respectively, compared with Harris’ 14%.

Despite ranking fourth overall, Ocasio-Cortez was the second-most-popular choice among voters ages 18-29, with 14% support, and those ages 30-44, with 15%.

A total of 12% of respondents indicated they weren’t sure who they would vote for if the primary were held today – down from 15% in August and 17% in June.

The poll also included Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear; U.S. Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Chris Murphy of Connecticut; and Rep. Ro Khanna of California.

The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 5-7 and surveyed registered voters nationally via opt-in online panel and text-to-web cell phone messages. The Democratic and independent sample groups were weighted to correspond to the national Democratic and independent populations. The margin of error was +/- 1.95%.