Study: Education data ignores strongest predictor of success – family structure

Amid the myriad of data points on race, sex, income and disability, education data often ignores the single most important factor for student success – family.

A new report from the Institute of Family Studies (IFS) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) explains how the U.S. Department of Education collects data on family structure but rarely shares it publicly.

“This omission deprives policymakers, educators, professionals, and parents of valuable insights into one of the most powerful predictors of academic success,” write AEI Senior Fellow Ian Rowe, IFS Senior Fellow Brad Wilcox and IFS Research Fellow Grant Bailey.

They conclude students have a significant advantage if they come from “intact” families with two married biological or adoptive parents.

Children of non-intact families – whether their household is led by a single parent or grandparent, includes step-family, or is part of the foster system – are less likely to receive good grades, more likely to have behavioral issues, and more than twice as likely to be depressed.

In fact, the authors argue family structure is a more powerful predictor than any other factor, including race or income level.

But when key data on family structure is left out, it’s easy to make false assumptions – and poor policy.

“Some believe that racial disparities in student outcomes must be caused solely by racism,” authors observe. “These reductionist conclusions, particularly regarding race, have led to the embrace of diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives focusing on race and ethnicity as the key drivers of student performance.”

However, the picture drastically changes when including the family factor.

One Virginia study examined white and black students of intact families and found no difference in academic outcomes that could be attributed to race alone.

Overall, Asian and white children are more likely to live with married birth parents (80% and 69%, respectively) than Latino (52%) or black (30%) children.

The authors argue education agencies need to include this data in their reporting to help policymakers and schools alike.

“By providing the public with a clearer picture of how family structure influences children’s health, student success, and economic security, federal agencies can empower schools, communities, local and state governments, professionals who work with children, and parents to address family structure when they are dealing with issues related to children’s educational success, physical and emotional well-being, and financial security,” they conclude.