(The Lion) — The United States and Iran are close to finalizing a one-page memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, with nuclear provisions at the center, according to Trump administration officials.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are negotiating with Iranian officials and through Pakistani mediators to secure the deal, Axios reported.
The framework calls for a 20-year moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment along with United Nations inspections, full sanctions relief, release of frozen Iranian funds and opening the Strait of Hormuz, followed by a 30-day detailed negotiation period, Axios noted.
An Iranian source confirmed the moratorium language to the Wall Street Journal, but the Journal said the sides will likely compromise to 12-15 years.
“We will close this very soon,” a Pakistani source told Reuters.
President Donald Trump warned Tehran Wednesday that rejection means more fighting.
“If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before,” Trump said via social media.
Energy markets moved instantly to the news of the negotiations.
West Texas Intermediate oil futures dropped to $77 a barrel on deal optimism while spot crude closed at $95.
The distinction matters.
Spot price reflects what a barrel costs today with no deal signed.
Futures price reflects where traders expect oil to land once Iranian crude returns to the market and the Strait reopens.
Gas prices hit $4.50 a gallon nationally before the Axios report landed, according to AAA, then wholesale gasoline dropped 5% within hours, NBC News reported.
A year ago, retail gas prices were at $3.16 nationwide, AAA said.
The Dow Jones was up more than 600 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set intraday and closing records for a second straight day, powered by the possibility of the peace agreement, according to Investopedia.
The pressure is on the administration to make a deal before the midterm election campaigns kick off in earnest.
Polls have shown growing dissatisfaction from Americans on Trump’s handling of the economy.
Nuclear provisions are likely the biggest obstacle to peace.
“Iran can never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon,” Vice President JD Vance said of the war on March 3. “That is the goal of this operation and President Trump will see it through to completion.”
Iran currently holds uranium stockpiles enriched to 60% purity.
Weapons-grade uranium is 90%, which could be achieved in a matter of weeks.
Secretary of State Rubio drew the line Tuesday.
“The president’s been clear that part of the negotiation process has to be not just the enrichment, but what happens to this material that’s buried deep somewhere that they still have access to if they ever wanted to dig it out,” he said, according to Reuters.
U.S. ally Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his security cabinet the nuclear material must be removed from Iran.
“We share common goals, and the most important objective is the removal of all enriched material from Iran and the dismantling of Iran’s enrichment capabilities,” Netanyahu added via social media about negotiations.
Still, Iran’s economy has left Tehran little room to maneuver.
The IMF projects 6.1% economic contraction for Iran in 2026 with near 70% inflation, noted CNBC.CNBC.
Food prices hit 105% annually by February, with staples such as bread up 140% and cooking oil up 219%, said the business network.
The rial has collapsed to 1.32 million per dollar.
Iran issued its largest denomination banknote in history, a 10 million rial note worth about $7.50, just to manage everyday cash transactions.
“In reality, Iran’s entire banking system is insolvent, its balance sheets sustained by fiction rather than assets,” wrote Siamak Namazi, an Iranian American who was detained in Tehran’s Evin Prison for more than seven years.
Senior Iranian economic officials privately warned President Masoud Pezeshkian that rebuilding the war-shattered economy could take more than a decade, CNBC said.
The central bank is also urging a deal before summer power grid failures turn economic collapse into humanitarian catastrophe.
Saudi Arabia may have provided the impetus to get the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table.
Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman denied U.S. basing rights after Trump announced American escorts in the Strait of Hormuz without advance coordination with the Saudi state, reported NBC News.
One Saudi source told NBC the kingdom was “very supportive of the diplomatic efforts” to end the war.
Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed the U.S. proposal is under review and will be conveyed to Pakistan, Reuters reported.
