(The Lion) — Outside of the effects the U.S. war with Iran will have in the Middle East, several analysts say the conflict may carry significant geopolitical consequences for China – eventually.

For now, however, China has adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

“Beijing’s response has been predictably restrained, underscoring China’s limited ability to shape events once hard power is in motion,” Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Associated Press.

The emerging theory among strategic analysts is that President Donald Trump’s moves against Iran in Operation Epic Fury, as well as earlier moves against Venezuela, are not isolated regional crises.

Instead, the moves have formed part of a broader geopolitical campaign designed to weaken China’s network of partners and reshape the global balance of power, even as the communist country struggles to respond.

A new analysis from the Lowy Institute argues Trump’s international strategy is becoming increasingly clear: avoid direct military confrontation with China, while stripping it of allies and geopolitical leverage.

According to the report, Trump is displaying “surprisingly deep strategic logic.”

“The core goal remains to restore absolute American superiority over China and Russia,” the institute said.

Iran occupies an important place in that framework: Tehran has long served as both a strategic partner and an energy supplier to China, while also acting as a destabilizing force across the Middle East.

By targeting Iran’s leadership and military capabilities, the U.S. is not just addressing regional security concerns but potentially weakening a key node in the China-Iran alignment.

That alliance has only grown stronger in recent years, as China makes its bid for global dominance.

“After the Iranian regime, China is the biggest loser in Operation Epic Fury,” said Arturo McFields, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States.

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, for his part, is having difficulty responding to bold U.S. moves.

“China is a fair-weather friend – long on words, short on risk,” Singleton added.

McFields said the war is depriving China of nearly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, or about 90% of Iranian output, all of which comes out of the Straits of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut down since the war started.

Politico notes about 17% of all Chinese oil imports overall come from Iran and Venezuela.

The problem for China is, it needs U.S. trade more than it needs Iranian oil, one expert told CNN.

“It still attaches greater importance to maintaining the trade truce and overall stability in the bilateral relationship with the U.S.,” said William Yang, senior analyst at Belgium-based think tank International Crisis Group, which has close ties to Iran.

That’s one reason why Trump called on China to help keep the Straits of Hormuz open, writing on Truth Social over the weekend, “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally decapitated.”

China needs good relations with the U.S., but it also needs Iranian oil. It wouldn’t be against Chinese interests to help open the straits back up to get the oil moving again – although it could hurt Chinese prestige.

Xi’s reluctance to act against the U.S. on Iran may also stem in part from his desire not to jeopardize an April trade summit between himself and Trump.

It’s hoped a U.S.-China trade truce will turn into trade talks, which will subsequently turn into a trade agreement – or at least prevent a rupture.

“Both sides, I think have a minimum goal of having ⁠a meeting, which sort of keeps things together and avoids a rupture and re-escalation of tensions,” Scott Kennedy, a China economics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told Bloomberg.

NBC News reports that, far from delaying the trade summit, the Iran action probably makes a face-to-face visit more urgent, at least for China. Peiyu Yang, an assistant professor of Arabic studies at George Mason University in Virginia, told NBC China likely views its relationship with Iran as “practical.”

“It’s not based on ideological standard or viewpoint,” she said. “It’s more based on economic interest.”

And the balance of this economic interest now lies more with the U.S than it does Iran.

“China … is proving to be a feckless friend for its authoritarian allies,” said Nicholas Burns, former U.S. ambassador to China under Biden.

That may be true, but Xi also could just be waiting because he has more to gain than lose, analysts say.

“Beijing would love to see the United States bloodied and embarrassed by this conflict, but a huge conflict in the Middle East could also upend their calculus and insert lots of uncertainty that they don’t want,” said Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center.

“The Chinese don’t want to derail the Trump-Xi meeting and feel they have a good hand to play ahead of it.”