(The Lion)–Iran’s Assembly of Experts has selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of recently killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader.

The selection dashed hopes among some Western observers that Iran might choose a leader more inclined toward de-escalation as fighting continues. The U.S. military death toll reached seven, with another service member dying Saturday, identified as Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, of Glendale, Kentucky.

“Major combat operations continue” U.S. Central Command said in a statement,

President Donald Trump predicted Mojtaba Khamenei would not last long, calling him “unacceptable” and a “lightweight,” and claiming the younger Khamenei had previously been passed over because he was viewed as “incompetent.”

Analysts say that beyond the formal approval of Islamic scholars, Khamenei’s selection reflects the backing of Iran’s military elite, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, was confirmed Sunday by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as the third supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, signaling a shift toward a more hardline government, analysts say.

The outcome should not be surprising, according to one think tank.

“During the assembly’s last election on March 1, 2024, and in preparation for the succession process, an aging and ailing Khamenei stacked the body with hardliners,” the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reported.

Reinstating hereditary leadership?

The succession also raises questions about whether Iran is moving toward a hereditary leadership structure, something the Islamic Republic rejected after the overthrow of the shah in 1979.

“The Islamic Republic did not abolish dynasty,” analyst Adil Faouzi wrote of Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession. “It merely laundered it through a seminary, armed it with a Revolutionary Guard, and stamped it with a fatwa.”

Born in Mashhad in 1969, Mojtaba Khamenei attended Tehran’s elite Alavi High School before pursuing religious studies in Qom.

He holds the rank of hojatoleslam, a midlevel clerical title, rather than ayatollah. Observers say it is likely he will eventually receive the higher title following his rise to supreme leadership.

Khamenei joined the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in 1987 and served in non-frontline roles during the Iran-Iraq War. During that time, he built relationships with commanders who now dominate Iran’s security apparatus, according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Analysts say his rise is tied largely to those military relationships rather than religious credentials or administrative experience.

A history of suppressing dissent

Carnegie reported that Mojtaba Khamenei played a role in suppressing the 2009 Green Movement protests by mobilizing militia forces against demonstrators.

Protesters chanted against him directly: “Mojtaba, may you die before you see leadership.”

In 2022, he was again identified as playing a role in suppressing nationwide anti-government protests.

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Mojtaba Khamenei in 2019, citing his connections to the Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force, which has been linked to attacks that killed hundreds of Americans.

The U.S. government tied the Quds Force to activities “including bombings of the U.S. Marine Barracks in Beirut in 1983 and the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association in 1994, as well as torture, extrajudicial killings, and repression of civilians,” Treasury said.

For years, analysts described Mojtaba Khamenei as a “mini-supreme leader,” controlling access to his father, influencing Revolutionary Guard appointments and building an estimated billion-dollar financial network despite holding no formal government position.

Generating controversy within Iran

His selection has generated controversy within Iran.

Iran International reported that Revolutionary Guard commanders pressured members of the Assembly of Experts through meetings and phone calls ahead of the vote.

Some assembly members reportedly were not informed the meeting was taking place despite being in the same city, although that may have been because of security concerns from U.S.-Israeli air strikes.

There have also been reports Mojtaba Khamenei may have been wounded in the original strikes that killed his father.

Iranian state television referred to him as “Jaanbaz of Ramadan,” a term meaning an injured war veteran, suggesting he may have been hurt in the U.S.-Israeli campaign that killed his father, his wife and one of his children Feb. 28, according to Iran International.

Critics say the succession could undermine the ideological foundation of the Islamic Republic, which has long rejected hereditary rule.

“Islam proclaims monarchy and hereditary succession wrong and invalid,” Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini wrote.

He argued that Iran’s supreme leader must be chosen based on religious qualifications.

Critics say Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection instead reflects his ties to the military establishment.

Some analysts say that tension could strengthen opposition voices, including Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former shah, who has proposed forming an interim government ahead of national elections.