(The Lion) — Americans outside of blue urban areas are feeling far more optimistic about the country’s future than big city residents, a new survey reveals.

The poll by the American Communities Project/Ipsos shows Biden-era inflation is still weighing down Americans’ view of the future, the Associated Press reported.

But rural America, the working class, evangelicals and others classified as Middle America now express significantly higher levels of optimism about the country’s direction compared to last year, according to the poll.

The share of rural respondents describing themselves as “hopeful” has risen from 43% to nearly 60%, while farming communities have surged from 48% optimism to 67%.

Crime concerns, although downplayed by survey authors, are still present in major cities, after peaking under former President Joe Biden.

The share of adults who are hopeful about the future in big cities plunged from 55% to 45% over the last year, according to the survey.

Inflation remains the most widely shared concern among respondents, with many attributing price pressures to tariffs and ongoing global instability.

Inflation surged under Biden, reaching a record high of 9.1%, while significantly moderating under President Donald Trump in his second term.

Current economic research and available data present a more hopeful future than even survey results suggest, which could make for a resurgence in consumer confidence after the holiday.

A recent working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reviews tariff impacts across more than a century of trade data from the United States, United Kingdom and France.

Contrary to many forecasts, the study finds tariff increases have historically been associated with lower inflation, not the higher inflation most mainstream economists have suggested.

The analysis notes the United States’ 2025 tariff hikes are unusually large by historical standards, but inflation data following these increases has not matched predictions of a sharp rise in consumer prices.

“I suspect by May – certainly by June, July – the inflation statistics will look pretty ugly,” predicted Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, in April.

Before the summer, Goldman Sachs forecast core inflation would hit 6.3% by mid-year, reported CNN two months later in an “explainer.”

In fact, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.2%, the exact same number posted in April, showing no increase whatsoever.

Core (CPI) increases have generally remained in the 0.2%-0.3% range.

While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the gap between forecasts and predictions has drawn attention because tariff effects have been more moderate than 40 years of free-trade dogma has preached.

Even more remarkable than the inflation data: the economy is apparently picking up steam.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model, which tracks real-time economic data, has raised its estimate for quarterly GDP growth several times in recent weeks.

The model currently projects growth of around 4% annualized, suggesting stronger economic momentum than many of the so-called blue-chip economists have forecasted.

Second quarter GDP growth came in at 3.8% with the third quarter Federal Reserve estimate at 4.1%.

Consumer spending, the largest component of the U.S. economy, has remained strong despite the greatly exaggerated rumors of its death by big-city liberal newspapers.

Statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows Personal Consumption Expenditures rising 0.6% in August, the most recent month, following two consecutive months of 0.5% growth.

Strong consumer spending typically indicates consumers feel good about their current economic situation and are hopeful for the future. Analysts note consumer activity is one of the clearest indicators contradicting expectations that conditions are deteriorating.

If the economic growth continues through December, it will mark the strongest economy since Bush invaded Iraq.

Mainstream economists argued robust economic growth, combined with tariffs and strong consumer spending, would lead to inflationary conditions.

But again: they have been wrong, and Trump has been right.

One reason why inflation has been weaker than expected involves the weaker labor market.

The wider labor market remains less robust than the highs of 2021-2022 during the COVID-19 rebound, but private-sector job creation has continued, despite massive deportation efforts that have removed illegal immigrants from the workplace.

The Lion previously reported from August 2024 to August 2025, native-born Americans gained 2.8 million jobs year over year, while foreign-born workers lost 822,000 jobs over the same period.

Still, the latest ADP National Employment Report shows private employers adding more than 40,000 jobs after several slower months.

Wage growth in the private sector is holding at roughly 4.5% annually, ADP said, indicating employers continue to face competitive labor conditions, while wages outpace inflation – another reason for consumer optimism.

While the American Communities Project/Ipsos survey reflects continued public worry regarding inflation – which the poll indicated was American’s No. 1 worry – current data on growth, employment, spending and tariff impacts provide reason for optimism.

The big question is how the data will combine in the new year to affect consumer confidence, which is typically a lagging indicator behind economic activity.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index hit its lowest reading ever recorded in October, in part because of the government shutdown. The decline likely reflects broad American pessimism yet to be restored since the pandemic.

Hence the Trump administration’s latest campaign to tout new investment and other indications of future growth for the U.S. economy.