Poll: Third party candidates boost Trump’s lead over Biden

(The Center Square) – Former President Donald Trump is narrowly beating President Joe Biden in a head-to-head faceoff going into November, a new national poll shows.

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll - Logo - White Background

The Center Square’s Voter’s Voice poll conducted with Noble Predictive Insights was released Wednesday, showing Trump beating Biden 46%-45% with likely voters. The rest are unsure.

TCS VVP Trump v Biden
Kate Guenther | The Center Square

When you include options to vote for third party candidates as well, Trump’s lead over Biden grows. When the poll includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein, Trump’s lead grows to 3 points.

In the five-person matchup, Kennedy nabbed 7% support while West and Stein each won 1% support, leaving Trump beating Biden 43%-40% with another 7% not sure.

“RFK doesn’t do particularly well with Republicans or Democrats,” David Byler of Noble Predictive Insights told The Center Square. “The voters he is picking up right now are true independents … that is huge.”

TCS VVP presidential Trump Bide and third party

True independents in this poll are independents who expressly say they do not lean toward one party or the other.

“That means that a lot of undecided voters who are on the fence are sitting in that RFK camp,” Byler said. “You’ll also notice that Joe Biden loses more support overall than Donald Trump when you move from a two-way matchup to a matchup that includes third parties. That suggests Joe Biden’s support is soft, that voters, if given another choice, are willing to move out of his camp even if that means giving Donald Trump a larger lead.”

A closer look at the poll shows Biden does better than Trump with female voters in a faceoff. Women prefer Biden 48%-41%.

Trump does better with male voters, beating Biden 50%-41%.

Notably, Trump does very well with Hispanic voters for a Republican candidate, beating Biden with 48% support to Biden’s 39%.

As expected, Biden does better with Black voters, beating Trump 75%-15%.

Trump also has made inroads with younger voters, slightly leading Biden. The poll shows Trump beating Biden by 3 points with likely voters ages 18-34.

Trump also does better with voters making between $50K and $100K while Biden does better with the richer and poorer voters.

“Donald Trump has improved his numbers as compared to the 2020 election among Black and Hispanic voters as well as voters ages 18-34,” Byler said, adding that “Trump is gaining ground meaningfully with traditionally Democratic groups…”

The poll of 2,510 voters included 1,044 Republicans, 1,126 Democrats and 340 true independents. It was conducted March 11-15 and has a margin of error of +/- 2%.

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